The new crown pneumonia epidemic has undoubtedly had a profound impact on the current Chinese economy. From retail catering, accommodation and tourism, transportation, culture and entertainment and other industries, the revenue has fallen sharply, to the slow resumption of work and production due to the limited flow of
people and logistics in manufacturing, real estate, and construction, to remote office, online education, and online medical care. The sudden emergence of technology companies such as, fresh food logistics, the epidemic has brought
different challenges and opportunities to various industries in China, and these changes may profoundly affect the future development trend and competitive landscape of the industry.
When SARS broke out in 2003, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of that year was 2% slower than that in the first quarter. But in the same year, Alibaba’s Taobao went online, and JD.com also began to test online sales, sowing the seeds for the future explosion of the e-commerce industry.
The epidemic has had an impact on the income and cash flow turnover of some companies and households, and has a short-term impact on banking business, but it will not have a fundamental impact on the development of the
banking industry in the long run. At the same time, online financial services have become more recognized, and the transformation of branches, the use of financial technology, and comprehensive financial services have become the focus of banks’ future attention.
For industries affected by the epidemic and the increase in credit for small, medium and micro enterprises, the
central bank and other five departments jointly issued the “Notice on Further Strengthening Financial Support to Prevent and Control the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic”, requiring local banking institutions to increase
the impact of the epidemic on production and operation encounters. When it comes to financing support for SMEs in difficulty, companies that are severely affected by the epidemic that have difficulties in repaying their loans can be
supported by extending or renewing loans, and appropriately lowering loan interest rates. The central bank has also issued special reloans to provide more preferential credit support to key protection enterprises for epidemic
prevention and control. At the same time, monetary policy is also more relaxed: on February 3, the central bank launched a 1.2 trillion reverse repo operation, and lowered the 7-day and 14-day reverse repo interest rates by 10
basis points; on February 17, the central bank launched a 200 billion yuan mid-term loan Convenience (MLF) operations and 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the MLF interest rate was reduced by
10 basis points; the 1-year and 5-year-plus LPR released on February 20 were also reduced by 10 and 5 basis points, respectively . On the one hand, banks have increased their credit to industries and small, medium and micro
enterprises that have been heavily affected by the epidemic, and on the other hand, they have lowered lending rates, which has narrowed bank short-term interest margins. Although part of the pressure is shared by finances, banks also need to pay attention to changes in interest rate differentials in the short term.
Asset quality is under pressure in the short-term but still controllable in the long-term
. Industries such as tourism, accommodation, catering, retail, transportation, entertainment and culture, and offline education are relatively directly affected by the epidemic. These industries are mostly small and medium-sized
enterprises, with business capacity and cash. A certain amount of non-performing loans and even bad debts may occur due to the weakening of flow and repayment ability. Some local regulatory authorities have also increased
their tolerance for non-performing loans of small and micro enterprises. Since banks usually use the expected credit loss model for risk management, the epidemic has necessitated banks to adjust their loan provisions in the first half
of the year. At the same time, the epidemic has caused a short-term decline in the income of many companies and individuals, and it will also have a certain impact on the bank’s deposit and loan business, and the expansion of the
bank’s intermediary business will be hindered. On the whole, the epidemic will have a certain negative impact on the short-term revenue of the banking industry. But in the long run, the recovery and rebound of the economy after
the epidemic will also improve the financial situation of the affected companies, and will have limited long-term impact on the banking industry.
Digital transformation accelerates
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, regulatory authorities have repeatedly emphasized the strengthening of online business services, guiding enterprises and residents to handle financial services through online methods such as the
Internet and mobile apps. It is expected that the new business model developed by the use of financial technology will further develop and play an active role, and the bank branch will also accelerate the transformation.
In the context of increasing the opening up of financial markets and the implementation of new asset management regulations, the sudden emergence of the new crown epidemic has caused China’s asset management and wealth
management industries to face new challenges. On the whole, in the short term, the liquidity risk of some investment debts that are greatly affected by the epidemic will increase, the scale of non-performing assets may
expand, and non-standard investments are facing greater pressure. Focus on the offline service model of wealth management and the operation of asset management companies The pressure will also be more severe. At the same
time, the epidemic will also bring growth opportunities to leading companies and new online formats. In the long run, after the epidemic, highly liquid assets, high-growth industries, and diversified asset allocation will still be welcomed by the market.
The capital market stabilizes and financing support is increased. In
recent days, financial regulatory authorities have jointly introduced various measures to ensure the smooth flow of financial services, and support the prevention and control of the epidemic and the real economy. Since the opening
of the domestic stock market on February 3, investor transactions have been smooth. Except for a sharp decline in the market on the first day, the market outlook has gradually stabilized and there has been a net inflow of northbound funds; the continuous explosion of fund products has also brought incremental funds to the ma
rket , The current market confidence and trading activities are active. On February 14th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued refinancing-related policies, which will help listed companies alleviate the cash flow
tension caused by the epidemic, and will also help build a more dynamic capital market in the medium and long term. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently responded to the transition period of the new asset management regulations, and also stated that it would give appropriate flexible arrangements to individual institutions.
Digital operation, online and offline integration and transformation
After the resumption of work during the Spring Festival, more than 90% of the business of public funds and most securities firms were handled through online channels, and corporate transactions and customer services were
basically not affected by the epidemic. The strengthening of off-site transactions and services will further promote the integration and transformation of online and offline, and accelerate the transformation of the functions of
physical business outlets. The industry can actively promote the use of off-site technical means such as face recognition to promote more compliance with high-risk businesses while improving the management and
application of digitalization in the business, laying a solid foundation for digital operation and digital supervision.
The non-performing asset market and the withdrawal of some equity needs to be paid attention to. In
2019, under the background of industrial upgrading and transformation and stricter supervision, the scale of
accumulated non-performing assets in the domestic market has increased. The epidemic has caused a greater impact on some industries, and some companies face greater pressure on their operations or even sustainable risks, and the
scale of non-performing assets may rise. For equity investments in these industries, if the agreed withdrawal time is in the near future, it may be difficult to withdraw.
Highly liquid assets, high-growth industries and diversified allocation will still be affected by the
epidemic, and the financial industry will take some time to adapt and adjust. Customers will be more inclined to highly liquid assets and high-growth industries, the reasonable combination of domestic and overseas assets will be
more valued, and the asset allocation structure will undergo certain changes. High-net-worth clients need to avoid a single portfolio of assets. Balanced asset portfolio and long-term investment philosophy can reduce the impact of short-term market fluctuations.
In the short term, insurance business revenue and profits will be under pressure. The
epidemic has had a significant impact on offline insurance businesses. The end of the year and the beginning of the
year are usually the peak sales season for insurance companies, which occupies an important proportion of the annual premium income. The outbreak of the epidemic at this time when it should be a good start has had a great
on new businesses, especially regular payment and protection insurance. The reduction of new business also adds difficulties to the allocation of insurance funds. In addition, although the epidemic prevention work is financially
supported by the government, the epidemic will last longer and health insurance claims will increase, which will put pressure on the profits of insurance companies.
The epidemic has also increased the public’s attention to insurance services. The epidemic has also triggered a new wave of insurance purchases. The public’s attention to the uncertainty of future risks has made life insurance and
critical illness insurance for individual customers popular. Insurance agents increased online insurance promotion and online Q&A during the epidemic, which partially offset the negative impact of not being able to acquire customers offline.
China’s insurance market has huge room for future development. At present, China’s insurance depth and density are much lower than those of developed countries. With the increase in per capita GDP and the increase in national
insurance awareness, the insurance industry has a broad prospects for growth. The fourth-tier cities are all affected, and the insurance consumer population is expected to sink further. Due to the epidemic and the global locust
incident, the optimization of the agricultural insurance catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism has been put on the agenda, and the establishment of the China Agricultural Reinsurance Company will accelerate. The opening of the
industry will also promote the acceleration of the development of health insurance and pension insurance, which will drive the development of related insurance types such as health insurance and agricultural insurance, and bring new development opportunities to related insurance types.
Short-term revenue and profit frustration The
epidemic has directly affected the revenue of retail physical stores. Catering, shopping malls, department stores, and professional brand stores, cinemas, and tourism have been closed, resulting in a setback in scene experience
consumption categories such as fashion luxury goods and alcohol; Although traditional supermarkets, convenience stores and street stores remain open to ensure people’s livelihood needs, the flow rate has also been severely
declining. Fixed operating costs such as labor, rent, inventory, etc. normally occur, and bank loan interest expenses have put pressure on cash flow turnover. Profits will fall sharply, directly challenging the survival of enterprises. On
the other hand, although the order volume of online shopping platforms and O2O home services has risen sharply, factors such as limited price increases and high service standards have suppressed profits and will show an upside-down situation in which volume increases and profits decline.
The competitive landscape accelerates differentiation. The
epidemic has triggered a further shift of retail companies to online, while strategically shrinking offline layouts to improve overall performance and efficiency. Companies with fragile operations will be hit harder, while high-
margin categories and companies that have deployed online businesses in advance will calmly respond. Strong brands and large platforms will take the opportunity to expand market share and grab customers, talents, stores,
suppliers and other resources of small, medium and micro enterprises; At the same time, accelerate the acquisition and integration of small chain and independent brand stores in a platform-based model; upstream and downstream
jointly build a collaborative and symbiotic digital ecosystem, and build alliances between shopping malls and merchants, consumer goods suppliers and channels to jointly fight the epidemic. While the development of each
sub-category industry presents a strong Matthew effect and the strong will remain strong, the competition pattern within the sub-industry will intensify differentiation. Competition is no longer a competition between individual
companies, but companies join the collaborative alliance ecosystem. While building a symbiotic relationship within the system, a legion-style and systematic competition is formed between the ecosystems.
Coordinated integration of the supply system
Due to limited epidemic prevention and control measures, limited supply chain transportation capabilities, rising product procurement costs, insufficient production and supply, and delays in distribution rework have affected the
supply side. At the same time, consumers’ increased awareness of food, hygiene, safety, and health, as well as the increase in demand for online products and distribution services, have also accelerated the integration, socialization,
synergy, and platformization of the supply chain, and supply chain collaboration The system becomes the regulator of the consumer retail industry. The large supply chain platform focuses on product sourcing integration and logistics efficiency improvement, physical business focus, community deployment, home delivery and consum
er portraits, strengthens accurate middle-end services, and obtains a large platform for accurate demand docking, so as to achieve accurate product selection, low-cost high-quality products Procurement, quality-guaranteed transportation, and precise distribution are empowered to jointly enhance the terminal service experience.
Community commerce is expected to explode.
Barriers to rigid-need categories such as fresh, daily and miscellaneous items will be breached in the epidemic. After
the elderly user groups are online, the basic area, awareness and acceptance of community e-commerce users will be enlarged. People who promote the process of urbanization in China Residential infrastructure provides an
environmental foundation for community e-commerce. Large supermarkets and O2O home service platforms have jointly provided services to consumers during the epidemic. The success of the cooperation model has been verified.
New social channels such as WeChat have dividends and integrated supply chain support is cost-effective. Good delivery experience in the near field of commodities and communities, low operating costs of the pre-sale model,
large-scale reproducibility and other advantages will prompt community e-commerce to be concentrated after this year. At the same time, the involvement of the capital side will form more intense in this field. In the competitive
landscape, real estate developers and community properties, smart home appliances, O2O home services, supply chain platforms, branded goods and service companies, and technology companies all expect to benefit from it.
Unmanned retail seeks opportunities
. The attempts of unmanned self-pickup, robotic distribution, unmanned retail stores and other methods that have emerged in the epidemic have broken through the psychological barriers of delivery and receipt. Unmanned stores,
unmanned shelves, automatic sales and other methods are in transportation hubs, Community businesses, hospitals, schools and other crowds gather time to effectively supplement terminal retail, providing a good service platform
for express delivery and takeaway delivery services, reducing the cost of delivery operations in the last kilometer, and at the same time in the automatic picking shelves of the supply chain, With the innovation and application of
automated conveying equipment and other means, along with the massive integration of the supply chain, the advantages of scale will surely lead to improvements in storage efficiency and service quality. At the same time, the
fast-developing digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and big data are actively seeking application scenarios for the development of unmanned retail terminals and back-end operations, and future values are expected to develop further.
The resumption of work and production is affected by the prevention and control of the
epidemic. The prevention and control measures of the epidemic will affect the flow of people and activities, which in turn affects logistics. The production of manufacturing, especially labor-intensive industries, is affected by the
supply of raw materials and labor shortages. Recent policies have stated many times to promote the coordinated resumption of work and production in all links of the industrial chain, in particular to give priority to ensuring the
restoration of production and supply of leading companies and key links that have important influence in the global supply chain, to ensure my country’s important position in the global manufacturing industry.
Smart factories and smart manufacturing will be further developed.
Automated and flexible production will be promoted. More high-tech talents and high-skilled and multi-skilled workers will be hired to reduce dependence on labor and better respond to labor fluctuations. At the same time,
more and more attention will be paid to the standardization of parts, the intelligentization of logistics, and the strengthening of the anti-risk ability of the supply chain.
Digital transformation and remote intelligent services will be actively used
in the deep application of digital technology, which can help improve employee collaboration efficiency, grasp the
key elements that promote business growth, more efficiently respond to fluctuations in market demand, and achieve product innovation; The remote intelligent service of the Industrial Internet uses AR, AI and other technologies to
provide remote guidance to monitor the operating status of the equipment and provide fault warning. It can be seen that the practical application of technologies such as BI, big data analysis, and AI will receive more attention, and urgent needs for data analysts will be put forward.
Automobile manufacturing and supply chain are under impact
Wuhan is one of China’s six major automobile industry cluster development cities, gathering five major vehicle companies: Dongfeng Passenger Car, Dongfeng Honda, Shenlong Automobile, Dongfeng Renault, and SAIC
General Motors. OEMs have attracted a large number of parts and components companies, covering major components such as chassis, gearboxes, body, electronics, interiors, and glass. The continued suspension of
production will not only impact OEMs in Wuhan, but also through the industry chain. Downstream companies have a certain impact. Due to China’s important position in the world’s automobile industry chain, the automobile manufacturing industries of Japan and South Korea have also been affected to a certain extent.
Car sales are under pressure in the short term, but it is expected to recover after the epidemic is over. The
epidemic has had a great impact on car sales in 4S stores. According to a survey conducted by the China Automobile
Dealers Association, among the 2,895 dealers surveyed, only 573 4S stores have resumed work, and the resumption rate is less than 20% 2 . However, the traffic restrictions caused by the epidemic and the emphasis on private space
will also promote the future growth of car sales. After the epidemic is over, the temporarily delayed demand for car purchases is released, and the car sales market may usher in a small peak. In order to stabilize the auto market, the
purchase restriction policies in some cities are also expected to be relaxed, and new incentives may even be introduced. For example, February 18, Foshan City, the introduction of policies to encourage the “National six” car
purchase, from March 1 to give 2000-5000 yuan subsidy per vehicle, launched this year became the first automobile consumption policy to encourage the city 3 . After the epidemic, car sales are expected to pick up steadily.
Auto finance accelerates development.
Residents’ income and employment have been affected by the epidemic, and maintaining the liquidity of assets has
become increasingly important. In this context, auto finance will be more widely accepted and used due to its flexible payment methods, smaller cash flow burden, and lower interest rates under loose monetary policies.
Medical and life sciences
Innovative drugs and medical device research and development are strengthened.
Through this epidemic, the research and development of various drugs and reagents related to virus detection,
suppression and treatment is bound to receive more attention, and the public’s use of products such as influenza vaccines will also greatly increase. Therefore, it is expected that more pharmaceutical companies will strengthen the R&D and manufacturing of innovative drugs and medical devices.
Improved health management and health care awareness
After the epidemic is over, the people will have a higher demand for health management and health care, which will promote the growth of medical consumption. Through this epidemic, the public’s attention to related respiratory
diseases and infectious diseases has increased significantly, and their understanding of disease prevention, early medical treatment, treatment methods and drugs, disease prognosis and harm has also been deepened, which is good for disease prevention. Especially the sale of household prevention products (home disinfection, personal protection).
The rapid development of Internet medical care is driven by the epidemic. Internet hospitals, online diagnosis and treatment, and various online pharmacies have received unprecedented attention. The government, industry, and the public have a better understanding of
emerging channels, and they have also solved many problems in special times. The problem of medical treatment and dispensing of patients with chronic diseases and common diseases in emergency department. Therefore, new
and treatment and drug acquisition platforms or channels such as Internet hospitals and online pharmacies will be better applied and developed in the future. In addition to changes in the structure of pharmaceutical product sales
channels, objectively diversified channels will also promote chronic diseases and common diseases in the future. The increase and improvement of the number of patients for treatment and compliance will increase the number of patients seeking treatment and treatment for related diseases through the optimization of the structure of the medical supply side.
AI empowers medical research
and development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a document advocating the use of artificial intelligence empowerment, encouraging research and mass production of a batch of auxiliary
diagnosis, rapid testing, and intelligent equipment to help intelligent disease diagnosis and treatment. For the medical AI industry with imaging AI products as the mainstream, it is a very good opportunity-it will further
promote telemedicine and smart medical care, and solve the problem of insufficient medical resources. The manufacturing companies that provide related products and solutions will usher in new development opportunities.
Primary medical service capacity needs to be strengthened
. One of the problems exposed in the prevention and control of the epidemic is that our country’s primary medical staff is insufficient and lacking in capacity, which has not played the role of the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment
system. As of November 2019, there are 960,000 primary-level medical and health institutions in China, accounting for 95% of all medical and health institutions 4 , but only 52% of the number of people receiving consultations and
treatments. The bed occupancy rate of township health centers is 60.4%, which is also significantly lower than the 84.5% occupancy rate of hospitals. After the epidemic, the government’s investment in primary medical capacity is
expected to increase, and to strengthen the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system, so that it can play a more active role in universal medical security.
Medical product production is more intelligent and flexible.
China is the world’s largest producer and exporter of masks, accounting for half of the world’s output. However, in the face of sudden epidemics, there is still a “hard to find” situation in a short period of time. Of course, there is the
impact of the suspension of production during the Spring Festival, but in the future, more flexible and socialized collaborative production will also help ensure the demand for medical products at critical moments. For example,
BYD and Sinopec introduced production lines and cross-border production of masks reflects the flexible manufacturing capabilities of the company. At the same time, more reasonable layout of distributed supply chain can also reduce the impact of incidents in some areas of the entire supply chain to ensure impact on the pharmaceutical, medical product supply 5 .
Technological companies gain development opportunities. In the prevention and control of the epidemic, the tremendous role of science and technology has become increasingly evident. Compared with the impact of the epidemic on many industries, the technology industry is less
affected, and many companies have even more development opportunities. For example, due to the epidemic reducing opportunities for offline communication, the technology industry represented by communication services,
online services, cloud services, artificial intelligence, and smart service platforms has developed rapidly in this round of the epidemic. Online education, online medical, online life services and other projects usher in unprecedented
market demand; unmanned retail, unmanned distribution and other high-tech industries are rising strongly; provide various distribution platforms and door-to-door delivery such as intra-city logistics, customized catering
distribution, and errands Service platforms are increasingly recognized. At the same time, “online” offices such as home office and remote office that are not restricted by geographical space, especially office software that can realize
individual collaboration, will be the future development trend. In addition, the masses are paying more and more attention to health management and health care awareness, including private doctors, private psychologists, and various “online” consulting services. The role of technology in empowering the medical and health industry is becoming more and more obvious.
The electronic and electrical manufacturing supply chain is affected. Due to the epidemic prevention and control measures restricting population movement, the phenomenon of late
return trips and difficulty in recruiting employees has affected the resumption of production lines. For the early supply of products, it will have a certain impact to a certain extent. In particular, Hubei Province has an important
position in the supply chain of automobiles, communications, and electronics, while Zhejiang and Guangdong include some leading enterprises in the electronic field of electronic parts manufacturing, electronic system
assembly, and printed circuit board components, relying on electronic products produced in China. Supply chains
such as, telecommunications and semiconductor originals will also be affected. February 17, the US Apple said that as the new crown epidemic caused by the iPhone, short-term capacity lower than expected, the first quarter of 2020 will be lowered revenue guidance 6 .
Enterprises accelerate technological upgrading
Facing the impact of the epidemic, traditional industries are also accelerating their transformation and upgrading, creating new business models. It is expected that more manufacturing companies will embark on digital
transformation and build smart manufacturing factories to improve the quality and efficiency of their production. At the same time, with the rise of new technologies and industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, 5G, and blockchain, the operational efficiency of enterprises and the entire society will be greatly improved, and the pace of technological change in my country’s industry will be faster.
Real estate sales have fallen sharply. Offline real estate sales activities have been greatly impacted. During the epidemic, sales offices in many places have closed and sales have fallen sharply. Especially in the third and fourth tier
cities during the Spring Festival, the demand for returning home to buy property was blocked, and the impact was even more serious. The pressure on destocking increased, which also had a certain impact on the annual sales. In
response, some real estate companies explore online housing sales models, which may redefine the real estate sales pattern in the future. In adhering to the principle of “housing to live without speculation”, the government has also
taken measures to stabilize the housing market. The 5 basis point reduction in LPR interest rates over 5 years announced in February will help reduce mortgage interest rates and stabilize the housing market.
Cash flow management is critical.
Affected by factors such as the suspension of construction in the prevention and control of the epidemic and the slower rework of construction workers, the pace of development and investment of real estate enterprises has also
been forced to slow down. As a highly leveraged industry, rapid capital withdrawal is of great significance to real estate companies, and cash flow is critical. Some small and medium-sized real estate companies have tightened funds
and increased their operating risks. According to the People’s Court Announcement website on February 21, since 2020, 81 real estate-related enterprises have gone bankrupt and liquidated across the country. At the same time,
some real estate companies with better operating conditions will also take the opportunity to purchase high-quality assets, and mergers within the industry have intensified, which will promote the integration of the real estate industry.
Increased demand for high-quality public resources in core cities to support housing prices Core cities and economically developed areas usually have relatively high
medical standards and medical resources, which has increased the attraction of population inflows. Some local governments also showed high governance capabilities in the prevention and control of the epidemic, which also
made these cities more attractive. The demand for high-quality public resources in core cities and regions will support the housing prices in these areas.
Changes in demand for commercial real estate.
Due to the delay in resumption of work and the avoidance of personnel gathering due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, many companies have adopted remote office. The new office model promotes the transformation of
business operations, the demand for more flexible shared office leasing may increase, and the office market structure will be adjusted. At the same time, due to the sharp decline in offline retail and tourism, retail real estate
and tourism real estate (such as hotels, characteristic towns) have suffered a greater short-term impact. As the consumption and tourism markets gradually recover after the epidemic is over, these markets are expected to improve.
Oil demand has fallen and prices are under pressure. As the impact of the epidemic continues to expand, international air passenger traffic has dropped sharply, high-speed restrictions in some areas of the country, public transportation in urban areas have been suspended, private
car travel frequency and travel radius have shrunk significantly; transportation industry, logistics and transportation, Industrial and mining enterprises and other industries are unable to resume work in the short term,
and diesel demand has shrunk sharply. This has led to a sharp decline in domestic product oil market consumption and domestic oil prices have begun to fall. At the same time, as China’s total oil consumption accounts for about 14%
of the world’s total, the decline in China’s oil demand also has an impact on the world. On the 13th, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast of global oil demand growth in 2020 by 365,000 barrels per day to 825,000 barrels per day, the lowest value since 2011. Declining demand has caused short-term pressure on international oil prices.
Both supply and demand in the coal market are low. The coal supply side has been greatly affected by the epidemic. Due to extended resumption of work and restricted
population mobility, most coal mines are currently unable to resume production as planned. Transportation (including international imports and domestic railways) is also hindered by the impact of traffic suspension, and the
supply of resources is relatively tight in the short term. Coal demand has also declined due to the delays in the start of various industries such as steel and chemical industries.
Grid companies are facing downward pressure on revenue.
During the epidemic, due to control measures, most people chose not to go out at home, which led to an increase in residents’ electricity consumption, while industrial and commercial enterprises’ electricity consumption declined
due to factory shutdowns or delays in resuming work. Since the electricity price of industrial and commercial users in my country is generally higher than that of residential electricity, the main income of power grid companies has fallen. At the same time, the short-term economic slowdown will also affect the income level of power companies.